Introduction
In the rural highlands of Kenya, a healthcare worker accesses a central database on her mobile device, securely retrieving patient records through an encrypted connection. Meanwhile, in a government office in Jakarta, officials store sensitive climate data behind advanced cryptographic protections. These everyday digital systems—and millions more like them across the developing world—could become suddenly vulnerable when powerful quantum computers become reality. The threat isn't theoretical, and the clock is ticking.
This looming cryptographic vulnerability is just one aspect of a technological revolution that promises to transform everything from medicine to agriculture to finance. Quantum computers could accelerate the development of life-saving medications for tropical diseases, create precise climate models to predict flooding in vulnerable regions, and enable secure financial systems reaching billions of unbanked people. But a troubling pattern is emerging: the nations investing billions in quantum research are predominantly wealthy, while developing countries risk being left with all the vulnerabilities and few of the benefits of this revolutionary technology.
The Quantum Revolution Is Coming—But Who Will Benefit?
Quantum computing represents a fundamentally different approach to processing information, one that harnesses the strange properties of quantum mechanics to solve problems that would take traditional computers centuries to crack. Unlike conventional computers that process bits (0s and 1s) sequentially, quantum computers use quantum bits or "qubits" that can exist in multiple states simultaneously—a phenomenon called superposition.
This capability isn't just an incremental improvement—it's potentially revolutionary for fields ranging from drug discovery to materials science to financial modeling. But as with many technological revolutions, there's a significant risk that the benefits will accrue primarily to wealthy nations while the risks and costs fall disproportionately on developing economies.
"Quantum computing may engender a rich-get-richer dynamic like few technologies before," warns a USAID report led by Abhilash Mishra and Bhasi Nair from Equitech Futures examining the implications of quantum technologies for international development. The report identifies three critical areas where action is needed now: cybersecurity preparedness, workforce development, and research ecosystem investment.
The Immediate Threat: A Quantum Cryptography Break
The most urgent concern isn't theoretical—it's practical and immediate. Most of today's digital security rests on encryption methods that will be vulnerable to quantum computing attacks. Everything from banking systems to government databases to secure messaging apps relies on cryptographic protocols that quantum computers could potentially break.
As Abhilash Mishra and Bhasi Nair emphasize, many developing countries have invested heavily in digital infrastructure over the past decade. Without proper preparation, quantum computing could effectively erase those security gains overnight.
The challenge is compounded by what the report identifies as "harvest now, decrypt later" attacks—where malicious actors capture encrypted data today with the intention of decrypting it once quantum computers become powerful enough. This means sensitive information being transmitted now could be exposed in the future.
Fortunately, "post-quantum cryptography" (PQC) algorithms already exist—encryption methods designed to resist quantum attacks. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is finalizing standards for these new protocols. But implementing them across global digital infrastructure will require significant resources and expertise.
The USAID report describes this as "a Y2K-type event, with the crucial difference that the precise date of the crisis is not known." This uncertainty around when quantum computers will become powerful enough to break encryption makes planning difficult, especially for resource-constrained governments.
Ideally, organizations begin to implement existing PQC solutions offered by the market in a crypto-agile manner as soon as possible. Under budgetary constraints, implementing open-source software may prove to be an economical alternative but will still incur some of the inevitable costs associated with migration to PQC solutions. At the very least, organizations should strengthen existing traditional cryptography, which may buy a few years' more time to migrate to PQC Solutions. In the long run, we expect NIST PQC standards will replace much of traditional cryptography, and organizations should expect to have to migrate to PQC in the coming decade.
Building a Quantum-Ready Workforce
The talent required to develop, implement, and manage quantum technologies—from cryptographers to software engineers to hardware specialists—is already in short supply globally. A 2021 McKinsey report found that quantum computing job postings outnumbered qualified applicants by 3-to-1, and the gap is expected to widen.
For developing countries, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity. The demographic dividend in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) means they have large young populations who could potentially fill this talent gap—if given the right education and training.
The USAID report highlights a growing global race for quantum talent. As Mishra and Nair point out, "Countries that invest in quantum education now will have a significant advantage in the new economy that emerges."
However, the existing educational infrastructure in many developing countries is ill-equipped to meet this challenge. Most lack specialized degree programs in quantum information science, and even basic STEM education outcomes often lag behind global standards.
QUANTUM TALENT PYRAMID
A comprehensive approach to quantum workforce development includes:
- Base Level: Public awareness campaigns about quantum computing
- Middle Levels: Strengthened STEM education at primary and secondary levels
- Higher Levels: Specialized undergraduate and graduate programs
- Top Level: Advanced training for existing tech professionals
The USAID report recommends a multi-pronged approach, from supporting new master's programs in quantum computing at universities in developing countries to funding bootcamps that can upskill existing STEM professionals. It also emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary training that combines technical quantum skills with business acumen.
Research Ecosystems and the Global Quantum Divide
The current landscape of quantum computing research and development is starkly unequal. Of the estimated $31 billion in public funding committed to quantum technologies globally, the vast majority comes from China, the United States, and the European Union. Similarly, private venture capital for quantum startups flows primarily to companies in North America and Europe.
The report warns of the emergence of "quantum have" and "have-not" nations. According to Mishra and Nair, "Without concerted intervention in several key areas, this existing global inequality will amplify over time. While the benefits of quantum technologies will accrue to developed countries, the opportunity costs and risks will accrue to less developed countries."
Some middle-income countries, like India, have begun developing national quantum strategies. India has allocated approximately $1 billion for quantum technology development between 2020 and 2024, focusing on indigenous capabilities and international collaborations. But most developing nations lack the resources for such investments.
The report suggests that development agencies could help bridge this gap by facilitating collaboration between researchers in high-income and developing countries. Programs like USAID's Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research (PEER) could be leveraged to build global partnerships specifically focused on quantum computing applications for development challenges.
Economic Opportunities in the Quantum Value Chain
Despite the challenges, the quantum transition also presents economic opportunities for developing countries, particularly those with existing semiconductor industries or natural resource endowments that are relevant to quantum technologies.
The quantum value chain spans from raw materials (like rare earth elements and helium) to component manufacturing to hardware and software development. Countries like Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand—which already have semiconductor manufacturing capacity—could potentially diversify into quantum component production.
Meanwhile, countries with specific natural resources could benefit from increased demand. Brazil, with its significant niobium deposits, could see new opportunities if superconducting qubit designs (which often use niobium) become dominant in quantum computing architecture.
Recommendations for a More Equitable Quantum Future
The USAID report outlines several concrete recommendations for development agencies, governments, and other stakeholders:
For Development Agencies and Donors:
- Develop "Quantum Risk Audit" protocols to help LMIC governments assess vulnerabilities
- Establish "Global Quantum Transition Taskforces" to support the shift to quantum-safe encryption
- Fund specialized degree programs in quantum computing at universities in developing countries
- Support annual "Quantum Computing for Development" conferences to foster collaboration
For LMIC Governments:
- Prioritize the transition to post-quantum cryptography for critical digital infrastructure
- Invest in quantum education at secondary and tertiary levels
- Explore international partnerships for quantum research and development
- Identify opportunities in the quantum value chain aligned with existing industrial capabilities
For Research Institutions:
- Develop open-source resources for quantum education tailored to LMIC contexts
- Establish international research partnerships focused on quantum applications for development
- Share best practices for quantum-safe cryptography implementation
For the Private Sector:
- Consider advanced market commitments for quantum technologies addressing development challenges
- Invest in quantum talent development in diverse geographic regions
- Ensure quantum-safe security updates are available for products used in developing countries
The Path Forward
The quantum future remains uncertain in many respects—exactly when cryptographically relevant quantum computers will emerge, which hardware architectures will dominate, and which applications will prove most valuable are all open questions. But what is clear is that developing countries cannot afford to be passive observers of the quantum transition.
The USAID report emphasizes that this is a global challenge requiring global solutions. As the authors conclude, we need developed and developing countries working together to ensure quantum technologies benefit humanity broadly, not just the privileged few. "Even if quantum computing develops along a different trajectory than currently anticipated," they note, "acting on these recommendations will strengthen digital ecosystems in developing countries and will therefore be worth the investment."
For individual researchers, policymakers, educators, and technologists in developing countries, the time to engage with quantum technologies is now. This might mean advocating for post-quantum cryptography adoption in your organization, exploring quantum computing curricula for your institution, or investigating potential quantum applications in your field.
The quantum revolution is coming—whether in three years or ten. The choices we make today will determine whether it exacerbates existing inequalities or helps build a more equitable global future. The technical challenges are formidable, but the biggest challenge may be ensuring that the benefits of this powerful technology reach those who need them most.
